Again: It’s Over

The Eccentric Observer
Old Dominion Tory

Deer hunters tell me that they often experience a phenomenon in which they have fatally shot a deer with an arrow or a bullet but the animal will run for some distance before collapsing. As one man put it to me, “The deer is dead; it just doesn’t know it right away.”

Last night, after being drubbed in North Carolina and eking out a victory in Indiana (as of this morning the margin is less than 23,000 votes out of more than 1.25 million cast), Mrs. Clinton uttered brave words about being headed “full speed” to the White House. News accounts this morning state that she plans to hit the campaign trail in West Virginia , a state, like Kentucky , in which the demography of the Democratic primary electorate would seem to give her an advantage. She also is scheduled to hold a fundraiser this evening in Washington , at which she is expected to rake in $500,000.

The trouble is that, as of this morning, the Clinton campaign is dead; she doesn’t know it yet. A report this morning is that the Clintons loaned her campaign almost $6.5 million; other reports are stating that the surge in fundraising success that her campaign experienced after Pennsylvania was short-lived. Taken as a whole, these reports indicate a campaign in perilous financial condition. By any of the standards that she has insisted that her performance and that of Senator Obama be judged, e.g., popular vote and pledged delegate count, she is behind and closing the gap would be nigh impossible. Even if the Democratic Party concedes her “victories” in Michigan and Florida , for example, she still would be behind in popular vote by approximately 90,000 votes.

Obama won the expectations game last night by scoring a double-digit win in North Carolina and coming as close as he did in Indiana. Political professionals and, one would think, superdelegates probably are impressed this morning by his comeback in North Carolina and his strong showings in central and northern Indiana where he carried majority-white counties by substantial margins. Watch for some members of the press to declare that Senator Obama’s success in last night’s primaries, after what can only be described as some very rough weeks—e.g., getting around the “Reverend Wright problem”—prove that he can “take a punch” and, therefore, is battle-ready for the general election. As soon as this line becomes accepted as conventional wisdom (and it won’t take long, as the news media seems more than a little tired of this race) and polls continue to show Obama besting McCain in any match-up (as they now are), the final rationale for the Clinton candidacy—that she would be the strong general election candidate—will evaporate in short order.

Admittedly, Barack Obama has not won the nomination outright and he’ll probably need superdelegates to put him over the top. However, over the next few days, Senator Clinton’s obstinacy in pressing on to what is sure defeat will seem ever more delusional and divisive. Watch for calls for Hillary to admit defeat and withdraw gracefully from Democratic leaders, like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, to increase in frequency and volume and for pressure, public and private, to be exerted on currently uncommitted superdelegates to emerge, possibly in groups, to declare their preference for Senator Obama. In the end, therefore, do not be surprised if this race is over by Memorial Day.