What Rubbish!

Eccentric Observer

Old Dominon Tory

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As you read this, voting is taking place in Britain’s 2010 General Election after six weeks of campaigning. 

There have been many remarkable stories in this campaign. For example, the Liberal Democrats, a perennial also-ran of a party that appeals to a certain type of leftish, earnest middle-class voter and promotes a foreign policy both slavishly Eurocentric and stridently anti-American, had a stroke of good fortune. Its leader, the featherweight Nick Clegg, was invited to share the stage with the Tory leader, David Cameron, and Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, at the American-style leaders “debates,” newly added this year. Mr. Clegg had a very good evening, coming across as charming and honest and presenting his party as “a middle way” (it’s actually more left than Labour on many issues and hasn’t met a tax it didn’t like). “Cleggmania” took hold, and the LibDems’ poll numbers shot up to the upper 20s. Seeing as the LibDems usually poll in the high teens and low 20s, this was heady stuff for Mr. Clegg—and it went to his head. He began parading about as a kingmaker in a coalition with Labour.  This behavior and Clegg’s less than stellar performance in the last two debates caused Cleggmania to wane considerably. However, the Liberals continue to poll in the mid-20s. In some polls today, they actually are back in the upper 20s. The explanation for the Liberals’ continued appeal can be summed up in one word: Labour.

Even the most die-hard Labourite is hard-pressed to admit that Labour’s campaign has been utterly shambolic.  After Gordon Brown laid an egg in the first leaders’ debate, many in Labour openly admitted that their best chance of retaining power was to enter into an anti-Tory coalition with the Liberal Democrats.  Many of Labour’s wounds have been self-inflicted. For example, one Labour candidate described Gordon Brown as the worst prime minister in British history. But the biggest self-inflicted wound came courtesy of Gordon Brown himself.  Driving away from a “walkabout” in a traditional Labour stronghold, Brown was recorded—courtesy of a microphone he was wearing--describing a 66-year-old woman and life-long Labour voter who voiced her concerns to him about immigration as “bigoted” and savaging the staffer who had introduced them. To Brown’s critics and not a few voters, this summed up everything wrong with Brown: his disdain for people, his volcanic temper, his reptilian coldness, and his abusive treatment of his staff. Labour’s polling numbers are mired in the 20s, and some polls now predict that Labour actually might place third in national voting. 

The Tories, led by David Cameron, now are routinely polling between 35-37% of the vote. Alas, because of the peculiarities of the current Labour-drawn parliamentary constituencies and the fact that the Tories need to increase their current number of MPs by more than 50% to gain a majority, they need every vote possible, especially in tightly-contested “marginal” constituencies. Although a fairly well-oiled machine with a positive message, the Tory campaign has come under its share of criticism for not staking out a bigger lead in the face of the opposition: a doleful Labour and all sizzle, no steak Liberal Democrats. Some put this down to the breaks of the game (e.g., Cleggmania). Others, though, criticize Cameron for reshaping the Tories into what one pundit called, “New Labour in a blue dress,” and so alienating more traditional and “small c conservative” voters. 

Based on the polls and trends in them, I think the results will be as follows: The Tories will pick up 37.5% of the vote nationally against Labour’s 25% and the LibDems’ 24%. This will give the Tories 120-125 more MPs, raising their numbers from 208 to 328-333. Labour will lose 130-135 seats, saved from utter humiliation by Labour redoubts in such places as Scotland, Wales, South Yorkshire, and Greater Manchester.  The LibDems will have a net gain of 5-7 seats, depending on the breaks and tactical voting by Labour voters.  Again, depending on the usual vagaries, the Tories should come in with a slim majority of 15-20 seats.

Other predictions: 

1. Almost total Labour wipeout in East Anglia, southern and southeastern England, Essex, the West and Southwest. The handful of saved Labour seats will be in urban areas, such as Southampton and Bristol.  
2. The LibDems will retain their hold on the Southwest for the most part, losing 2-3 seats to the Conservatives.
3.  The Tories will win 3-5 seats in Scotland and as many as nine in Wales.
4.  As I mentioned in a Facebook post, all eyes will turn to Northern Ireland on Friday morning. Any success by Unionist candidates in Ireland will strengthen the Tories hand as it is expected that Unionist MPs will take the Tory whip.  Ian Paisley’s Democrat Unionist Party, however, now is the dominant force in Unionist politics, and they might demand too high a price for Cameron to bring them into the Tory fold.
5. All of my predictions will be utter rubbish.       
 

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Comments

[Robbo]

Perhaps I don't pay sufficient attention to Northern Irish politics, but I'm rather surprised Ian Paisley is still alive. Heck, the Monty Python team were making jokes about him back in the late 60's.

[The Maximum Leader]

I was getting all excited about someone really making some bold predictions about the Brit elections...

Then I read #5.

Drat.

[Robbo]

There's a neat-o interactive election map over at the Times. Ladbrokes is predicting the Tories will be 6 seats short of a majority, but Fink Tank says they'll get a 20 seat cushion.

[Old Dominion Tory]

Maxy: Number 5 was just me recognizing the only guarantee in political punditry: You're wrong.