Election 2010

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Eccentric Observer

Old Dominion Tory

 

 

 

Rarely in American political history have the fortunes of the major parties reversed as quickly and decisively as they have between Election Day 2008 and Election Day 2010. Two years ago, pundits assured us that the Democrats’ sweeping victories translated into a new liberal consensus and a new Democratic ascendancy, one that could last as long as forty years. The Republican Party, they informed us, now was a much reduced and irrelevant rump.

Now, it appears that reports of the Republicans’ demise were greatly exaggerated (again), and the Democrats are about to receive a drubbing of historical proportions.    

House of Representatives

As of Monday, Real Clear Politics rated 43 House seats as toss-ups, 41 of which are Democrat-held. Furthermore, among the races it rates as “Leans Democrat,” only two of them are currently Republican seats (Louisiana 2 and Delaware At-Large). Taking those numbers as well as some more general trends into account, I predict the Republicans will win at least 30 of the current toss-up races, and enjoy a net gain of 65 to 75 seats, giving them between 243 and 253 seats in the 112^th Congress.

If you’re trying to catch a nationwide trend early, watch New England.  After the 2008 elections, Republicans did not hold any of the twenty-two Congressional seats in New England. This year, however, many competitive races are in New England. In Maine, for example, Republicans could win at least one of the state’s two Congressional seats. In New Hampshire, both seats are in play with New Hampshire 1 looking like a solid GOP pick-up. In Connecticut, two seats—Connecticut 4 and Connecticut 5—are in play, and I would not be surprised to see both fall into the Republican column.  The contest for Rhode Island’s 1^st Congressional District is now neck-and-neck.    

If you like to look at politics from a Southern perspective, then the trend could emerge in the Carolinas and Virginia.  In North Carolina, four Democrat-held seats are toss-ups:  NC 2, NC 7, NC 8, and NC 11.  A Republican sweep of those four races will mean the Democrats are in for a very long night.  In South Carolina, all eyes are on long-time Democratic Congressman John Spratt’s attempt to hang on to his seat in South Carolina 5. He is in trouble, and a Republican victory would be further evidence of a building GOP wave.  In Virginia 2 and Virginia 5, the Democratic incumbents rode to victory in 2008 on Barack Obama’s coattails. This year, however, it appears Barack Obama’s unpopularity could drag them down to defeat.

 Senate

As of Monday, Republicans had a solid hold on 45 Senate seats, including two now held by Democrats (Indiana and Wisconsin).  The balance of power, therefore, will be decided in the seven toss-ups races—California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia.  The Republicans will win in Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington.  That might not be all, however. The final polls on the Connecticut race show Democrat Richard Blumenthal’s lead over Republican Linda McMahon to be shrinking. He held a seven-point lead on Monday morning; he had been up by double digits. A McMahon upset is a long-shot to be sure, but if McMahon achieves it, it could be a very interesting evening indeed.

Perhaps, the character Margot Channing in “All About Eve” (played so well by Bette Davis) out it best.

 

 

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