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April 05, 2012

Comments

Crackie

Well Mrs. P, I guess we will have to play with the cards we have been dealt. The fact that polls at the moment show President Obama leading in battleground states suggests that there is not much room for mistakes by Gov. Romney. As much as conservative media pounced on the President's remarks about the Supreme Court, it seems unlikely that such things will shift independent voters. But it is Holy Thursday, and hope is a virtue. Keep hope alive.

The Ancient

"Sometime between now and October, President Obama will say something so stunning that moderate voters will go, whoa."

The problem with that is that it assumes voters will still be listening. Very few decideds *ever* get switched. It's the undecided votes that matter, and Santorum and his supporters have been busy sweeping them in the direction of Standing Pat. (You remember Pat, don't you? She's the one who reacts to electoral catastrophe by closing her eyes, covering her ears, and shrieking.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/independents-are-abandoning-romney-or-not/2012/04/04/gIQAT3UHwS_blog.html

We're on the verge of "live boy/dead girl" territory.

George Pal

Gentlemen Commentors:

If angst were water we'd be a drip short of two more Great Lakes. I'm not complaining - public angst is great entertainment and more hysterically Pythonish than Monty.

The week before the election Jimmy was within polling error of the dunce crazy, stupid extremist, actor cowboy, gonna blow up the Russkies and everything else, Ronnie. The electorate, once in the voting booth, decided a man of any sort was better than a peanut.

Nothing so focuses an electorate as election day; and a choice between humdrum and a sylphan pipsqueak with an ego bestowed on him by Harvard Law in lieu of an education is a no-brainer. Obama will lose and the angst will have been for naught but my entertainment.

If I am wrong (it happened last in '72 if I recall) then Obama will be the least of this country's worries and it will be my turn at angsty.

Crackie

George Old Bean, You are clearly correct about the 1980 elections. I can recall a conservative pundit--Robert Novak I think--starting to write off the Reagan campaign in August 1980, with some details about proper allocation of blame.
However, the 2004 and 2008 elections were also no-brainers. I will bitterly cling to my angst, thank you. So, what did you get wrong in '72?

The Ancient

In 1980, the vote was evenly split between Carter and Reagan up until the one and only debate -- which was held October 29. From that point on, the bottom fell out for Carter -- who went into that debate with an approval rating in the 30s.

http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf

This is a more partisan era, and Independents matter even more now than they did then. In 1980, Independents, comprising just 23 percent of the electorate, went 31/56/13 for Carter, Reagan and Anderson.

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_80.html#.T33_14HaKSo

BTW, I'm pretty old myself. I attended conventions as long ago as the Sixties, and wrote sections of the party platform as late as the early Eighties. No one wants Obama gone more than I do, but I don't think it's very likely.

Crackie

Ancient Old Bean, If you were at the Cow Palace (as Howard Dean reportedly was), we could do with some recollections here in the commbox, while we await further guidance from Mrs. P and George.

George Pal

Ancient,

I'll take a back seat to most anyone in the field of psephology. Not that there's nothing to be gained by it but not by me – bores me sleepy. By seat of the pants reckoning, Obama will not match his Independent vote, will not come anywhere near matching his Catholic vote, will not match his Jewish vote, will not match his anti-war vote, will not match his stupid youth vote, will not match his tingle up the leg vote (if its still tingling its just fallen asleep is all).

Whatever Obama's advantages, character, record, demeanor, cannot be counted among them.

Whatever Romney's shortcomings, being John McCain isn't one of them – no great achievement; no small advantage.

George Pal

Crackie,

Please, I offer not guidance but assurance.

In '72 I bet on McGovern. A thousand dollars was real money in those days. No electorate would pass that up. I was young. I'd blown a good deal of my tuition on ponies and poker and stuff. Gawd, those were the days.

The Ancient

Crackie --

The 1964 Republican convention I watched faithfully on television. In 1968, I sat sufficiently close to the late mayor of Chicago that I could hear his response to Abe Ribicoff's very justified complaint about the behavior of the Chicago police force. (Don't ask.)

I was -- once upon a time -- The Last Living Conservative Democrat. (It's like being a Confederate Widow, but less profitable.) All that expired in the late 1980s.

P.S. Didn't really know Rockefeller, thought Happy was and is a sweetheart (my wife went to school with one of the daughters), think nowadays that the people who behaved so boorishly at the convention to Rockefeller were a) dishonest and out of date, and b) destructive of Goldwater's chances (which were always slim at best).

GP --

In 1972, when I was abroad, I very unwisely took on an exceedingly minor position in the McGovern campaign. Back in the days when one still talked about such things, I was sometimes asked how it went. Being then still a Democrat, my answer was always the same: "I carried the Navy wives."

(I know, an extra millennium in Purgatory.)

Raul

cording to George Pal

'If angst were water we'd be a drip short of two more Great Lakes. I'm not complaining - public angst is great entertainment and more hysterically Pythonish than Monty.

The week before the election Jimmy was within polling error of the dunce crazy, stupid extremist, actor cowboy, gonna blow up the Russkies and everything else, Ronnie. The electorate, once in the voting booth, decided a man of any sort was better than a peanut' - that was made one day news.

Every one laughs as the voting machine needs a loud voices. Honestly that such things only happens when two candidates or politics don't share the same golf club.

Mr.Romney and Mr.Medvedev should play golf every week. Both need to work out issues on saving economy debts.

but my point was also that Mr.Nixon is well known critic of Russia. i wonder he's an exellent pair for our future innagurated president, who wisely managed to became third time elected.

On same time, media of our countries get payed both from left wingers to show the "real face" obviously it's a same time small bussines for each other. Personaly my youth started when Bill Clinton was in office, just wonder the same cow place as Kremlin.

So to me, the happiest time of my life were in period of our friendship and mmtual respect. Just remember early food crisis of last century in Moskva.
and i'd say the present situation demand the feeling of each other respectfull position.

At least the presidency can't become a showbussines.

Whereever it happens.

the politician as myself also may feel a bit of unexpected vexation.

and for latest V.Butt scandal about weapons trading 'n pass sentence - absolutly correct. the person like Butt is well known out of law criminal person. Butt have to be jailed. Just my suggestions that one scandal throw one more stones in the busket.

Get any back idea who could put out the stones and wisely became a construction manager.

We should go to easter mass with
a concept to pray for each other.

That would be good start for future work.

Mrs. P

[To those PP readers not in the know - Raul is part of PP's Russian readership and has been part of our following for -oh, at least 4 years, maybe longer -posting under various names.]

I agree with George that whatever Romney's shortcomings are, being John McCain is not one of them. Only in the last few days did I sincerely begin to believe Romney could beat Obama - not because he's Romney but because he's going to win the non-Obama vote - a very nice touch of irony.

I do think our major threat for Romney losing is neither from the base --Conservative, values or religious voters but from the GOP's summer soldiers:

"THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."

I am fully expecting it will be the Peggy Noonan contingency in the GOP to once again not only fall in line with Obama, but make the less informed but equally aesthetic (moderates) feel stupid for even considering to pull the lever for Romney.

Mrs. P

I agree with Crackie that Hope is a theological virtue and we must keep it alive...

More importantly - I think- I understandindividual freedom is not necessary to keeping Hope alive should Obama be re-elected as well as the Supremes not find Obamacare unconstitutional...

And I agree with The Ancient he's getting an extra millenium in Purgatory. I think this blog alone has earned me 3 extra milleniums....

Mrs. P

Oh and this may amuse -- in '84 I voted Dem. I lived in Boston and worked for Jack Connors -just google -all shall be easily explained.

But that vote turned out to be Providential when a few years later after moving to Michigan I met a very attractive poet copywriter who revealed to me over pints that in 1980 he had worked on the John Anderson campaign. (I was too young to vote in '80.) Because I had not only voted for Mondale (and Kerry) but had actually gone to a political rally for McGovern in the Boston Commons - hey McGovern wanted to bring back train travel and I liked riding trains- anyhoo- because of my own political stupidity I couldn't reject this guy's equal stupidity. Our conversation evolved into a long one on how our educations turned us against Reagan. A few weeks later he drove me to get a Michigan driver's license and I had to register party affiliation. He watched me check "R". Then he asked the lady for a registration form too. I just looked on in amazement as he said "I've been wanting to change this for a while - and he checked "R" and handed it over.

Prayers for all of you and Russia and the U.S. tomorrow night.

Kate Anderson

But he's a Mormon. They're weird and I'm not so sure there not trying to take over the government and the country and then we'll all be forced to comply with their religoius beleifs. They are all about indoctrination they send young men to knock on peoples doors all the time. Maybe I just won't vote in 2012 because I can't bring myself to vote for either.

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